I have
to render this post with an explanation and a promise. I sat down to write about the way that the
whole writing and publishing business is reeling from the huge impact that the
e-book revolution has created. I had to
mention the big race tomorrow as a matter of course, given the name I gave to
the blog. But I could not find the
discipline requisite for such forbearance.
As I considered the race, I felt an imperative. I had to explore it, look at the several
dimensions of complexity in the endeavor.
I will post on the other topic in a couple of days.
So
tomorrow it’s the Belmont
Stakes. The race track itself is a
factor. It is one of the largest ovals
among US racetracks. The horses will
start and finish at the same spot, completing a mile and a half circuit. And the track is wide, wide. Racetrackers have used various figures of speech to
characterize Belmont park. So whether
the track is “a monster,” “the grand canyon of racing,” “a featureless ocean,” “the
Test of the Champion,” “big sandy,” or “graduate school,” most people who pay
attention to horse racing see the track itself as an ominous challenge to any
three year old equine. I think
of these horses as babies. In my view, races
of this magnitude, the Triple Crown races, should be for four year olds. The
sad tale of the great filly Ruffian (buried at
Belmont) says all I need to hear on the subject. But no
one asked my opinion in 1919 when the tradition, of the Triple Crown for three
year old thoroughbreds became a tradition.
This tradition, however, has allowed truly exceptional horses like Count Fleet (1943), Seattle Slew (1977) and
especially the unsurpassed Secretariat (1973)
to absolutely dominate their respective fields.
 |
| Notice the immense size of the track. Jockey Ron Turcotte is checking as he crosses the finish line to see if they are setting a new track record (they are). |
Secretariat won the race by 31 lengths, giving
the impression at the finish line that no other horses were in the state of New
York. Secretariat still holds the track
record which is not likely to be in jeopardy tomorrow.
The
track at Belmont Park
is also a challenge for Jockeys. The
width of it means that riders find themselves short on visual landmarks. When horses are at the top of the final turn,
they still have a half mile to run, nearly double the distance from the same
landmark at Churchhill
Downs where the Kentucky Derby is run.
The riders have to decide when to ask their horses to bear down and find
that extra gear. If a jockey does this
too early, he could find that his or her horse is spent well before the end of
the race. Almost every well known jockey
has experienced at least one major failure in this race.
There is
going to be a big field tomorrow.
Fourteen jockeys will do their best to pilot fourteen horses around the
big oval. Twenty-eight arguably sentient
creatures will be directly involved in this complex event. All of them will bring their physical
advantages and vulnerabilities, their preferences, their prejudices, and their
emotional volatility to the track and all of it will be in play simultaneously
during the lead-up to the race and the race itself. Some of the horses will know one another. One of
the horses (Unlimited budget) is a filly
who has mainly run against other fillies and may find “the boys” interesting,
annoying, threatening, or irrelevant.
And the boys could have their own reactions. Unlimited Budget’s rider will be Rosie Napravnik, the
only woman jockey in the race. This fact
gives sports writers a much needed story line for the race but in my view, the
sexual politics that may make a difference in the race has to do with the
horses, not the jockeys. Ms. Napravnik
is a terrific athlete and consummate professional as are the thirteen other
jockeys. The jockeys will do their best
to keep their mounts focused. But horse
priorities inevitably have their own momentum.
And if a horse runs next to a horse who has attempted to bite, the most
important thing for a cautious and dignified horse could be to avoid a nasty
bite. All of this adds several
dimensions of uncertainty to the endeavor.
And there
may be mud. For some horses mud is
irrelevant. They do their job
period. Other horses are fine running in
muddy ground but become annoyed when clods hit them. Jockeys on such horses may elect to take
their horses to the lead so as to avoid the inevitable clods that the trailing
horses have to put up with. Other horses
find muddy ground so demoralizing that they lose all interest in competing. Mud is also a factor for jockeys who have to
deal with muddy goggles on a track that already poses visual challenges. Mud gives handicappers and touts another
factor to ponder. So here is the morning
line:
1-Frac Daddy (30/1)
2-Freedom
Child (8/1)
3-Overanalyze
(12/1)
4-Giant
Finish (30/1)
5-Orb
(3/1)
6-Icognito
(20/1)
7-Oxbow
(5/1)
8-Midnight Taboo (30/1)
9-Revolutionary (9/2)
10-Will Take Charge (20/1)
11-Vyjack (20/1)
12-Palace Malice (15/1)
13-Unlimited Budget (8/1)
14-Golden Soul (10/1)
For more on this try this
article. As for me, I will note that
Orb won the Kentucky Derby covered with mud and looking very pleased with
himself. He did not, however, cope very
well when he got stuck behind other horses in the Preakness. It was as though he was just annoyed that
those other horses didn’t get out of his way.
I loved the way Oxbow won the Preakness. He just jumped out and took
charge, leading the entire way. Revolutionary is a maniac who does not like to
lose and Freedom Child won a huge race (the Peter Pan Stakes) on a sloppy track
by more than 13 lengths. And I will have
to pull for Unlimited Budget, a very big girl who should have the requisite
stamina. But all of these babies are
sharp, fast, exquisitely bred animals who are competitive, have competent
riders up and have won before. Any of
them could have the stamina and equanimity to win the race. I could not wager comfortably on this one.
No comments:
Post a Comment